We evaluate the performance of the 4.4 km Unified Model (UM) which is currently used operationally by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) to simulate daily rainfall. Positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole tend to co-occur with El Niño, and negative phases with La Niña6, 7, 8, 9. track of TC Irina conforms to an inertial oscillation (Wang et al. Tropical cyclone activity was above average with most occurring during, the months of January and February. We present five recent severe COLs, which occurred between 2016 and 2019, that had high impact and found a higher model skill when simulating heavy precipitation during the initial stages than the dissipating stages of the systems. S Afr Geogr J 75:53–59, Jury MR, McQueen C, Levey K (1994) SOI and QBO signals in the African region. During summer, most households and institutions practise rainwater harvesting while a few resort to purchasing water from vendors. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015–1057, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian, Seager R, Harnik N, Kushnir Y, Robinson W, Miller J (2003) Mechanisms of hemispherically symmetric, Singh P, Chowdary JS, Gnanaseelan C (2013) Impact of, a special emphasis on southwest Tropical Indian Ocean SST. Children wade through floodwaters near Tica Relocation Centre, 80 kilometres from Beira. Trenberth KE, Shea DJ (2005) Relationships between precipitation and surface temperature. Development and implementation of wind generated ocean surface wave models at NCEP. The study concludes that measuring flood preparedness of riparian communities require context-specific variables. Environmental impacts related to both the impact of and partial recovery by the affected populations to these prior storms (particularly Cyclone Idai) could be worsened by Eloiseâs impact. ECMWF forecast showed little movement (Fig. As, thermocline deepens to the northeast of Madagascar with an incoming Rossby wave, SSTs, are able to simulate this process and its impacts on tropical convection. The influence of large-scale circulation patterns on the track and formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Mozambique Channel is investigated in this paper. Observations and model analyses suggest that the Indian Ocean Dipole modulates the strength of the Walker circulation in autumn. Spatially distinct patterns of drought conditions were evident with harsh and dry conditions towards the east. In several areas, rain-fed agriculture is no longer tenable, with a direct impact on rural livelihoods. Further evidence for TC–anticyclone interaction is evident in the, WAM model data for the peak event south of Maputo: date March 2, 2012, height 6.84, Dando formed east of Madagascar and moved slowly at first before heading west over, Mozambique on January 17, 2012, flooding the coastal lowlands along the Limpopo River, The WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project offers a range of model, guidance including ensemble TC track and intensity forecasts (Coiffier and Chen, with Dando. Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall on 23 January, 20km south of Beira city in Sofala province. In the absence of a coherent observing system, studies of the Agulhas have relied heavily on ocean models, which have revealed a possible recent increase in Agulhas leakage(6-8). for zonal winds, indicating a retreat of mid-latitude westerlies and strengthening of tropical, easterlies, up to the end of February. Teleconnections with ENSO are well es- tablished although more regional SST variability, especially in the Tropical and South- Western Indian Ocean seem to be strongly involved. Composite analysis reveals that ridging high pressure systems are modulated by Rossby wave trains that develop upstream in the middle latitudes near South America and the South Atlantic Ocean near the Greenwich Meridian. But resultant devastation caused by the cyclones could impact the countryâs elections as concerns are raised over whether the southern African nation can properly hold the ballot scheduled ⦠Case studies are presented for TC Dando and Irina, and forecasts of. ) The storm displaced more than 16,000 people, damaged around 17,000 houses, and killed more than a dozen people across a few countries in southeast Africa. UNICEF is on the ground, helping to assess the damage to ensure swift and effective relief for children and their families. The district was divided into two distinct climatic areas: the drier eastern lowveld and the wetter western bushveld. The results were discussed and it generally showed that large-scale circulation patterns might influence the formation and track of the TCs in the Mozambique Channel especially through the different modes of variability associated with the western branch of the Mascarene high. In March 2019, Beira and the surrounding Sofala region in Mozambique, were severely affected by another Cyclone: Idai. Despite many worthy observational and numerical modeling studies in recent decades, our understanding of the detailed physical processes associated with the early stages of tropical cyclone formation is still inadequate; operational forecast skill is not very high. On 29 January 1984, the tropical cyclone Domoina moved over Southern Africa from the Indian Ocean and caused the largest ever floods in parts of Southern Mozambique, Swaziland and South Africa. TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MOZAMBIQUE Last Updated 03/22/19 G E O G RA PH IC IN FOR M A T I O N U N I T U S A I D/ DC H A / O F D A. a vigorous increase has preceded shifts towards interglacials(5). Gusts were expected to reach between ⦠This study investigates the nature and extent of water supply problems and how communities are living without adequate water in three rural communities of Greater-Giyani Local Municipality in South Africa. This air–sea interaction process is unique and inherent in the Indian Ocean, and is shown to be independent of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. The discovery of this dipole mode that accounts for about 12% of the sea surface temperature variability in the Indian Ocean—and, in its active years, also causes severe rainfall in eastern Africa and droughts in Indonesia—brightens the prospects for a long-term forecast of rainfall anomalies in the affected countries. Overall, the intensified mesoscale variability of the Agulhas system is reflected in accelerated eddy propagation, in its source regions as well as the retroflection from which eddies propagate into the South Atlantic Ocean. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse quantitative data and determine the level of community preparedness on each variable and indicator. The facts: Cyclone Idai's effect on southern Africa. The downstream shedding of a vortex from Madagascar contributed to the variable nature of TC tracks and forecast errors in January-March 2012. The NW monsoon becomes active and moisture that would normally be exported to southern Africa is retained in the SW Indian Ocean. A factor analysis was also conducted to identify the underlying factors that either hindered or promoted flood preparedness. stream shedding of a vortex from Madagascar (cf. predicted landfall of Irina in southern Mozambique on 3 March (Fig. Sofala was the most affected Convection in the equatorial, b). Primary data was collected through questionnaires, key informant interviews and field observations while population, climate and hydrological data are also analyzed. These caused confusing information to flow between state agencies and the public. TC Irina formed northeast of Madagascar on February 25, 2012 (cf. Since suffering the back-to-back shocks of Idai and Kenneth, Mozambique has been hit by other destructive storms, including Chalane in December 2020, followed by Tropical Cyclone Eloise just two months ago, which caused widespread damage and affected some 176,000 people. Education is a fundamental pillar for societies in their efforts to address climate change, as stated in Article 12 of the Paris Agreement. Positive SST anomalies in the SW Indian. Hence, many TCs forming over warm SST near Madagascar moved along 40E, spinning off a, subsident circulation over the interior of southern Africa. Flood preparedness involves building capacities of communities for effective disaster response and recovery. A subtropical ridge induced easterly steering, o limits the formation of TCs and those that develop take a, ). The two tropical weather systems had anomalously long life times overland. Deep subsident easterlies to the east of Madagascar, trough (10–15S) was vigorous in January–March 2012, and the sea surface salinity was. There was extensive flooding of the Olifants River Valley in South, Africa, as evident in the radar reflectivity images. Tropical Storm Eloise is expected to turn into a Cyclone with expected winds between 140km/h and 160km/h. Young people on a motorbike in Beira, after cyclone Eloise made landfall in central Mozambique. Join ResearchGate to find the people and research you need to help your work. Composite analysis also shows that ridging‐induced moisture fluxes affecting South Africa originate from different areas of the surrounding oceans at different times during the evolution of ridging highs. Can synoptic patterns influence the track and formation of tropical cyclones in the Mozambique Channel? ). Globally, subtropical circulation in the lower troposphere is characterized by anticyclones over the oceans. The COVID-19-related economic slowdown has only exacerbated these needs. Paper presented at the ASPRS 2009, annual conference, Baltimore, Maryland, 9–13 March 2009. anticyclonic rotors in the subtropics of both hemispheres. Eloise Floods Mozambique. The output of the hourly classification of circulation types (CTs), in Africa, south of the equator, using rotated principal component analysis on the T-mode matrix (variable is time series and observation is grid points) of sea level pressure (SLP) from ERA5 reanalysis from 2010 to 2019 was used to investigate the time development of the CTs at a sub-daily scale. Our analysis reflects adequate upper level wind observations over land (cf. The Mascarene High is an anticyclone located over the Southern Indian Ocean and has a vital role in weather and climate variability over Southern Africa. Case studies were considered for two TCs, which brought flooding to southern Mozambique and adjacent areas: Dando ⦠Observed rainfall is based on Climate Prediction. ) The wrath of Cyclone Eloise over the weekend in central Mozambique left 5,000 houses destroyed or damaged and almost 7,000 people displaced in an area already battered by two deadly cyclones in 2019. …and families with basic hygiene kits, including soap, toothbrushes and toothpaste. related to a subtropical ocean Rossby wave coupled with equatorial zonal winds. An Agulhas leakage shutdown has been associated with extreme glacial periods(4), whereas, Teleconnections between equatorial African climate and the surrounding circulation are examined using a convective index over oscillation and Walker cell over the Indian Ocean that induces shifts in rainfall, particularly in the October to December the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP; Kanamitsu et al. MAPUTO, May 20 2019 (IPS) - Mozambique, which was affected by an unprecedented two tropical cyclones over a matter of weeks, is still reeling from the impact a month after the latest disaster. Impacts of a Tropical Cyclone. Humanitarian action is central to UNICEF’s mandate and realizing the rights of every child. Geophys Res, Vermeulen JH (1995) Tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean: track prediction and verification, Vermeulen JH, Jury MR (1992) Tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean: track prediction and, verification 1989–1991. landfall in the southwest Indian Ocean under enhanced anthropogenic forcing. Exceptionally heavy rains fell over the northeastern parts of South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe during February 2000. Ocean were at odds with the expected Pacific La Nin, While SST are a key part of TC forcing, the atmospheric circulation must offer horizontal, cyclonic vorticity and vertical easterly shear (Gray, the ocean, a warm pool of water propagated slowly westward along 10S consistent with a, formed in or drawn to the Mozambique Channel: Chanda, Dando, Funso, Giovanna, and. The study recommends the need for government and municipalities to invest in water reticulation systems in the long term whilst providing water to affected rural communities through water tankers, drilling more boreholes and maintenance of existing ones. Tropical Cyclone Eloise and its effects on the Lowveld. The daily time series of gauge and satellite rainfall on the southeast coast of Africa, March. TC caught between tropical easterlies and mid-latitude westerlies. Malherbe J, Engelbrecht FA, Landman WA (2012) Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and. effect and cyclonic vortex in the south (Fig. Meteorol Atmos Phys 106:163–178, Chen M, Shi W, Xie P, Silva VBS, Kousky VE, Wayne Higgins R, Janowiak JE (2008) Assessing objective. An anomalous easterly circulation associated with Pacific La Nin, SST in the SW Indian Ocean are indicated as mechanisms supporting repeated tropical, cyclogenesis in the Mozambique Channel. The flow and moisture fluxes are divided into their geostrophic and ageostrophic components. Tens of thousands of children expected to need humanitarian assistance in wake of powerful storm. Mid-tropospheric cut-off low (COL) pressure systems are linked to severe weather, heavy rainfall and extreme cold conditions over South Africa. Context: Part of the area affected by Cyclone Eloise was affected by Cyclone Idai in 2019 and Cyclone Chalane in 2020, particularly Sofala and Manica Provinces and parts of Beira City (see map). and cMorph multi-satellite data (Joyce et al. Questionnaires were administered among community members whilst key informant interviews were conducted among relevant government and municipal officials. Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015, Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Mozambique Channel from January to. The radiosonde profiles upstream at Ft Dauphin are noteworthy in the NE wind, topographic shearing by the island of Madagascar. tional Research Institute Climate Library, and ADPRC-Univ Hawaii websites. The spatio-temporal links between sea surface temperatures and winds reveal a strong coupling through the precipitation field and ocean dynamics. Tropical Cyclone Eloise threatens Mozambique. Before comparisons between the impacts of past and recent tropical cyclones can be made, various societal factors known to influence the magnitude of losses over time must be 1 Data quality can be affected by, for example, changes in access to and in the assessment of ⦠A mixed methods approach with both quantitative and qualitative datasets was used. Eloise, fuelled by the warm Indian Ocean waters of the Mozambique channel, gained tropical cyclone status with its strength equivalent to a category two storm, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), said. In contrast, the coasts on either. wave analysis model (WAM) and HYCOM models, respectively (Tolman et al. Understanding the performance and limitations of the UM model in simulating COL characteristics can benefit severe weather forecasting and contribute to disaster risk reduction in South Africa. Likewise, about 71% of the variables were at or below incipient level of development. Families queue during a food distribution at Tica Relocation Centre. Read more about UNICEF’s response and how you can help. These ageostrophic fluxes contribute to the occurrence of rainfall during the ridging process in the region located between Lesotho and Swaziland. It was found that households, schools and clinics in the study area rely mainly on boreholes for water supply but sometimes rivers supply those living nearby. The guidelines for such a task are based on the study of four educational factors: the students, the teachers, the teaching and learning strategies and methods, and the goals of education. Comprendre comment Irina, une tempête tropicale modérée a pu être bien plus destructrice que le cyclone tropical intense Giovanna survenu quelques jours plus tôt. It used a weighted 5-point Likert Scale to quantify 11 preparedness indicators: resource availability; emergency and evacuation plans; early warning systems; flood knowledge/awareness/education, and proofing information; post-flood recovery; risk communication and social capital. Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall early morning on 23 January near Mozambique's city of Beira, causing widespread damage and flooding on a long swathe of coastline and impacting an area still recovering from Cyclone Idai. Lessons learnt from this study may be useful to other municipalities across South Africa that are grappling with challenges of water access and supply. Here, the ability of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) state-of-the-art ensemble prediction model to predict Idai and 38 other tropical systems is assessed. The warm Western Indian Ocean is a major source of moisture for the subcontinent also permitting tropical cyclone genesis. S Afr, Poolman E, Chikoore H, Lucio F (2008) Public benefits of the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration, Project in south-eastern Africa. The looping. An assessment of riparian communities’ preparedness to flood risk: the case of Mbire communities in Zimbabwe, Forecasting Intense Cut-Off Lows in South Africa Using the 4.4 km Unified Model, Climatology of the Mascarene High and Its Influence on Weather and Climate over Southern Africa. The recent 2015/16 event had devastating impacts on water levels, crop yields, livestock herds and rural livelihoods. Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Mozambique Channel from January to March 2012 resulted in five landfalls that affected Madagascar and southeastern Africa. In view of this, the present study assessed the preparedness of riparian communities living in Mbire district, Zimbabwe and identified their capacity building needs. The associated moisture divergence region is always located ahead of its ageostrophic counterpart, with a local maximum eventually forming in the Mozambique Channel. Regional wind responses to SW Indian Ocean heat anomalies contribute to a 15% change in seasonal rainfall and maize production in South Africa. In the Mozambique Channel, atmospheric conditions are favorable for the development of TCs due to high SST of about 26°C-28°C in austral summer (Pillay and Fitchett 2020) and weak vertical wind shear (Jury and Pathack 1991 (Reason 2002) and southeast wind anomalies that penetrate the Channel. Meteorol Atmos Phys 67:37–69, Hurlburt HE et al (2009) High resolution global and basin-scale ocean analyses and forecasts. As in Dando, a strong Mascarene Anticyclone blocked poleward movement of TC Irina, causing a looping track on 3 March (Crowe. The tropical cyclone Idai, which hit land in Mozambique in 2019, was one of the deadliest storms on record in the Southern Hemisphere. gut C, Behera SK, Luo JJ, Cravatte S, Masson S. o/southern oscillation and the seasonal predictability of tropical cyclones. Meteorol Mag 121:186–192, Vitart F, Anderson D, Stockdale T (2003) Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozam-, Wang B, Elsberry RL, Wang Y, Wu L (1998) Dynamics in tropical cyclone motion: a review. Irina turned back toward southern Mozambique and dissipated on the 10th. Jury MR (2013) Variability in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean and influence on southern Africa climate. This seems to result from an increased South Equatorial Current driven by enhanced trade winds over the tropical Indian Ocean. In January 2012, the SW Indian Ocean was warmer than normal, creating conditions for cyclogenesis. Further, ). Monographie d'une catastrophe naturelle : Tempête Tropicale Irina à Madagascar en 2012. Divergent circulation and low-level moisture flux are used to document these modifications. The subtropical jet stream shifts poleward and may bifurcate (Chang-Seng and Jury, years 1990–2014 reproduces such a pattern, elongated westward across Africa. Climate change is the most serious environmental, social, and economic problem humanity is currently facing. Preprints 26th Conf Hurr, Tropical Meteorol, Miami, FL, Am Meteorol Soc 240–241, Fitchett JM, Grab SW (2014) A 66-year tropical cyclone record for south-east Africa: temporal trends in a. global context. UNICEF and partners distribute medical supplies to health professionals working from a classroom near an accommodation centre in Beira. During TC. 16/02/2021. Part 2: structure and impacts at, the event scale. This flux of warm and salty water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean (the Agulhas leakage) is now recognized as a key element in global climate(3). The rainfall, circulation, and temperature fields surrounding the TCs were studied for, anomalous characteristics. The models under-estimated rainfall amounts as-, sociated with Dando as it moved to left (poleward) of forecast. Tropical Cyclone Eloise was the strongest tropical cyclone to impact the country of Mozambique since Cyclone Kenneth in 2019 and the second in a row of three consecutive tropical cyclones to impact Mozambique in the 2020â21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. This feature is analogous to the thermocline see-saw of the Pacific and is, 1C and TC frequency triples on average. Over the weekend, tropical cyclone Eloise made headway across the coast of Mozambique, causing high winds, heavy rains and severe flooding. March 2012 resulted in five landfalls that affected Madagascar and southeastern Africa. Atlantic, Unlike in the Sahelian region rainfall variability in Southern Africa exhibits mainly in- terannual component and no long-term trend. Gusts were expected to reach between ⦠This is mainly due to inaccurate placing of COL centers. Like the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean also shows interannual climate fluctuations, which are known as the Indian Ocean Dipole4, 5. UNICEF is therefore urgently working with the Government and partners to make sure that the victims of the cyclone have access to safe drinking water to prevent the spread of disease. South of Africa, the Agulhas Current retroflects and a portion of its waters flows into the South Atlantic Ocean(1), typically in the form of Agulhas rings(2). However, several variables showed potential as precursors of tropical storms and cyclones, and some of these could be predicted at long lead times. 2011 vs 2012, the former having negative sea surface height anomalies, the latter being positive. This leads to an analysis of the annual cycle and inter-annual variability via wavelet filtered principal components. In mid-March 2019, a devastating cyclone tore through Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, killing hundreds of people so far and causing massive flooding. The 3 March. Abstract. Published: Friday 05 February 2021. c). Environmental conditions are favorable to TC development in, Department of Geography, University of Venda, Thohoyandou 0950, South Africa, South African Weather Service, Pretoria 0001, South Africa, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa 3886, South Africa, University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez, Mayagu. Indian Ocean, this zonal circulation extended only to the Mozambique Channel. Fortunately, my children are doing well. In the port city of Beira, and in rural areas, severe flooding has impacted families still recovering from Cyclone Idai, which struck in March 2019 and displaced thousands of people. The study area lies in a semi-arid region which regularly experiences climate extremes such as droughts and floods which can reduce the ability of the municipality to supply water. This modification of the teleconnection may be related to the Indian Ocean warming through a westward shift of the subsident branch of the anomalous zonal circulation during ENSO and its location over Africa. The 2012 TC season over the SW Indian Ocean was similar, to the 1984 season: Both were characterized by Pacific La Nin, southern Africa. As many of you know, the Lowveld is currently experiencing heavy rainfall over much of the region due to Tropical Cyclone Eloise, but how many of us know what the effects ⦠Report from the Republic of, Xie SP, Annamalai H, Schott FA, McCreary JP (2001) Structure and mechanism of south Indian Ocean, Yeshanew A, Jury MR (2007) North African climate variability, part 1: tropical thermocline coupling, Theor, ... Another anomalous wet season that affected the Greater-Giyani Local Municipality coincided with the occurrence of a La Niña event over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during 2011/12. A man and child walk through a muddy field carrying a plate of food received during a distribution at Tica Relocation Centre. Mozambique, which was affected by an unprecedented two tropical cyclones over a matter of weeks, is still reeling from the impact a month after the latest disaster. of TC track forecasts and consequent disaster mitigation efforts. Oceanography, Izumo T, Vialard J, Lengaigne M, de Boyer Monte, Yamagata T (2010) Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on following year’s El Nin, Joyce RJ, Janowiak JE, Arkin PA, Xie PP (2004) CMORPH: a method that produces global precipitation, estimates from passive microwave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution. The TC, continued moving toward southern Mozambique, an unusual track because Madagascar, tends to block the easterly steering flow (Reason. Clim Dyn. UNICEF is also working with partners to provide health professionals with medical supplies…. Intercomparisons with satellite and reanalysis data reveal a cool bias in NCEP during the SE monsoon. This paper examines the evolution and circulation patterns associated with cases of severe COLs over South Africa. Subtropical anticyclones locate over subtropical belts, modulating weather and climate patterns in those regions. One important aspect is atmospheric blocking due to the Mascarene High, which leads to anomalous rainfall and temperature events over the subcontinent. The Mascarene Anticy-, ). Here we show using a simple forecast model that in addition to this link, a negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole anomaly is an efficient predictor of El Niño 14 months before its peak, and similarly, a positive phase in the Indian Ocean Dipole often precedes La Niña. on TCs in the SW Indian Ocean is the east–west dipole (Saji et al. Their impact can be devastating. Hazards, Nat. Most of the rainfall occurred during the periods 5-10 February and 22-25 February and in both instances were caused by tropical weather systems that moved from east to west over the subcontinent. Basic services have been severely disrupted and affected families are in urgent need of shelter, food, protection and access to health care and safe drinking water. Their impact can be devastating. West Indian Ocean J Mar Sci 8:15–36, Mudenda OS, Mumba ZLS (2004) The unusual storm of January 1996. Contrasts between SODA and GODAS reanalysis products reveal the former exhibits higher amplitude annual to inter-annual variability. DOI: Malherbe J, Landman WA, Engelbrecht FA (2013) The decadal-scale rainfall cycle, Southern Annular Mode, and tropical cyclones over the Limpopo River Basin, southern Africa. The rainfall forecast of the South African Weather Bureau Eta model shows encouraging results as far the geographical distribution of rainfall is concerned but the rainfall totals were underestimated by some 50%. This paper attempts a synthesis of new observations and new concepts on how tropical cyclone formation occurs. Mavume AF, Rydberg L, Rouault M, Lutjeharms JRE (2009) Climatology and landfall of tropical cyclones, in the south-west Indian Ocean. Communities in Mozambique devastated by Cyclone Eloise. Matyas CJ, Silva JA (2011) Extreme weather and economic well-being in rural Mozambique. Previous studies have found that the tracks and strengths of tropical storms and cyclones are difficult to predict more than a few days ahead. Specific humidity at 500 hPa and divergence at 200 hPa were higher than normal several days before the peaks, and these potential precursors were also forecasted with skill up to about 2 weeks in advance. Part 1: inter-annual variability, and statistical prediction. In this study, we review the dynamics of the Mascarene High, its interactions with the ocean, and its impact on weather and climate over Southern Africa.
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